Tembilahan, detikriau.id<\/strong> \u2013 Kabut asap yang dalam beberapa hari terakhir terpantau cukup pekat di Tembilahan, ibu kota Kabupaten Indragiri Hilir (Inhil), terjadi ketika Indonesia tengah menghadapi fenomena El Ni\u00f1o dengan intensitas sangat kuat.<\/p>\nKondisi ini menjadi perhatian karena Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional (BRIN) memproyeksikan ancaman kekeringan yang dipicu El Ni\u00f1o dapat berlangsung hingga periode 2027\u20132028.<\/p>\n
Proyeksi tersebut bukan berarti fenomena El Ni\u00f1o dipastikan akan berlangsung tanpa putus sampai 2028. BRIN menyebut ancaman kekeringan akibat pengaruh El Ni\u00f1o masih berpotensi bertahan hingga periode tersebut.<\/p>\n
Dalam publikasi BRIN bertajuk \u201cBeware of Super El Ni\u00f1o 2026\u20132027, BRIN Strengthens Cross-Border Mitigation\u201d, Peneliti Senior Pusat Riset Iklim dan Atmosfer BRIN, Erma Yulihastin, menyebut proyeksi tersebut berdasarkan simulasi dan analisis terhadap 14 model iklim NASA NEX-GDDP.<\/p>\n
\u201cBerdasarkan simulasi dan analisis 14 model iklim NASA NEX-GDDP, ancaman kekeringan yang didorong El Ni\u00f1o diproyeksikan dapat berlanjut hingga periode 2027\u20132028,\u201d demikian substansi informasi BRIN tersebut.<\/p>\n
BRIN juga menyoroti munculnya sinyal kuat menuju fenomena Super El Ni\u00f1o 2026\u20132027.<\/p>\n
Sementara itu, Mark Merrifield dari Scripps Institution of Oceanography menyebut anomali suhu permukaan laut di wilayah Pasifik Ekuatorial menunjukkan sinyal kuat menuju fase Super El Ni\u00f1o yang diperkirakan berlangsung hingga awal 2027.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o Sangat Kuat Sedang Berlangsung<\/strong><\/p>\nKondisi tersebut sejalan dengan pemantauan Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG).<\/p>\n
Dalam analisis terbaru, BMKG mencatat pada Dasarian III September 2026 nilai anomali suhu permukaan laut di wilayah Nino3.4 mencapai +3,44\u00b0C, sedangkan indeks ENSO tiga bulanan periode Juli\u2013Agustus\u2013September (JAS) mencapai +2,70.<\/p>\n
Angka tersebut menunjukkan El Ni\u00f1o berada pada kategori sangat kuat.<\/p>\n
BMKG juga menyebut kondisi El Ni\u00f1o diperkirakan masih bertahan hingga awal 2027. Prediksi musim hujan 2026\/2027 menunjukkan awal musim hujan di 529 Zona Musim atau sekitar 61,08 persen wilayah Indonesia mengalami kemunduran dibandingkan rata-rata klimatologisnya.<\/p>\n
Kondisi ini penting bagi wilayah Sumatera dan Riau karena periode kering yang lebih panjang dapat meningkatkan kerentanan terhadap kebakaran hutan dan lahan serta penyebaran asap.<\/p>\n
Dalam analisisnya, BMKG juga memperingatkan potensi kekeringan meteorologis pada sejumlah wilayah, termasuk sebagian Riau pada periode Oktober 2026.<\/p>\n
Asap Tembilahan dan Risiko yang Perlu Diantisipasi<\/strong><\/p>\nDi tengah proyeksi iklim tersebut, kondisi kualitas udara di Tembilahan menjadi persoalan yang tidak bisa dilepaskan dari meningkatnya kerentanan terhadap karhutla.<\/p>\n
Dalam beberapa hari terakhir, asap terpantau menyelimuti sejumlah kawasan di Tembilahan. Kondisi tersebut bahkan telah berdampak terhadap aktivitas pendidikan, dengan sekolah menerapkan pembelajaran jarak jauh sebagai langkah perlindungan terhadap peserta didik.<\/p>\n
Persoalannya, jika kondisi kering dan risiko karhutla tidak hanya terjadi pada musim ini, melainkan kembali muncul pada periode berikutnya, maka penanganan asap tidak cukup dilakukan sebagai respons terhadap kejadian sesaat.<\/p>\n
Pemerintah daerah perlu memperkuat langkah pencegahan sejak awal, terutama pemantauan kawasan rawan terbakar, kesiapan menghadapi karhutla, perlindungan kelompok rentan, serta sistem peringatan dini kualitas udara.<\/p>\n
BMKG sendiri dalam siaran pers mengenai El Ni\u00f1o sangat kuat mengingatkan pemerintah daerah dan pemangku kepentingan untuk meningkatkan kewaspadaan terhadap kekeringan dan karhutla.<\/p>\n
BMKG juga menekankan perlunya kesiapan menghadapi kondisi kualitas udara yang kurang sehat berkepanjangan akibat mundurnya awal musim hujan.<\/p>\n
Dengan demikian, kabut asap yang kini dirasakan masyarakat Tembilahan dapat menjadi peringatan bahwa persoalan yang dihadapi bukan sekadar asap hari ini.<\/p>\n
Jika proyeksi BRIN mengenai ancaman kekeringan hingga 2027\u20132028 menjadi kenyataan, daerah-daerah yang memiliki kerentanan karhutla seperti Inhil perlu menyiapkan strategi mitigasi yang lebih panjang, bukan hanya menunggu munculnya titik api.\/red<\/p>\n
Sumber: BRIN, Beware of Super El Ni\u00f1o 2026\u20132027, BRIN Strengthens Cross-Border Mitigation; BMKG, El Ni\u00f1o Sangat Kuat sedang Terjadi, Musim Hujan 2026\/2027 Diprediksi Datang Lebih Lambat (22 September 2026); serta Analisis Dinamika Atmosfer Dasarian III September 2026 dan Prediksi Musim Hujan 2026\/2027 BMKG.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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